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Showing posts with label Speculation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Speculation. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BE KIND



I will now relate the life of a proud man. Two days after he died, on October 22, 1806, the Newburyport Herald carried his lengthy obituary. “Departed this life, on Wednesday evening last, Mr. Timothy Dexter, in the 60th year of his age — self-styled "Lord Dexter, first in the East." He lived perhaps one of the most eccentric lives of his time…Born and bred in a low condition in life, and his intellectual endowments not being of the most exalted stamp, it is no wonder that a splendid fortune, which he acquired by dint of speculation….(though perhaps honestly), should have rendered him, in many respects, truly ridiculous….His ruling passion appeared to be popularity, and one would suppose he rather chose to render his name "infamously famous (rather) than not famous at all." His writings stand as a monument of the truth of this remark; for those who have read his "Pickle for the Knowing Ones,"…find it difficult to determine whether most to laugh at the consummate folly, or despise the vulgarity and profanity of the writer. His manner of life was equally extravagant and singular.”Timothy Dexter never attended school. He had been sent to farm work at the age of eight and at 16 he became an apprentice. In 1769, at the age of 29, Timothy Dexter opened his own glove making shop in Newburyport, Massachusetts. A year later Timothy married the widow Elizabeth Frothingham; “…an industrious and frugal woman” who was nine years his senior. Besides having given birth to four children, Elizabeth ran a “Hucksters shop”, where she sold second hand items and local produce. After the wedding Timothy moved into her house at the corner of Merrimack and Green streets and opened his own shop in the basement; “…at the sign of the Glove, opposite Somerby's Landing.” There were some in Newburyport who disapproved of the uneducated Timothy Dexter, who were offended by his ambition and ignorance. They noted he drank too much, and spoke clumsily. They scoffed at his luck and were impatient for his fall.During the Revolutionary war Timothy was a patriot. But wartime inflation threatened all he had built. In July of 1777 a bushel of wheat cost eight Continental dollars. Just a year later it cost almost thirteen. Over the same year a pound of coffee rose from 48 Continentals to 120. It was no wonder then that many holding the shrinking Continentals sold them to speculators at a fraction of their face value, for quick gold or British pounds. But urged on by his savvy wife, Timothy gambled on the Continentals. He bought thousands of dollars worth, for hundreds. And to the surprise of many, in the “dinner table compromise” of 1790, Congress decided to buy all the outstanding Continentals at face value. Overnight Timothy was made a wealthy man. In fact, at the age of 49, Timothy Dexter was rich enough to retire.
With his new fortune Timothy invested in civic minded projects, like the 1792 Essex Bridge across the Merrimack River. Timothy bought ten shares toward the construction, and was given a prominent place in the opening ceremonies on July 4th. Afterward, he dared to make a public toast; “Ladies and Gentlemen, this day, the 18th year of our glorious independence commences...Permit me, then, my wife and jolly souls, to congratulate you on this joyful occasion. Let our deportment be suitable for the joyful purpose for which we are assembled --- Let good nature, breeding, concord, benevolence, piety, understanding, wit, humor, Punch and wine grace, bless, adorn and crown us henceforth and forever. Amen” Of course, Timothy’s remarks were delivered in French!It was a harmless speech, made, he supposed, amongst friends, and he sent a copy of it (translated into English) to the local newspaper. He explained the readers should not be surprised he could speak French because “…Frenchmen express themselves very much by gestures…”. But there were those present who were not Timothy’s friends, who insisted he had made a drunken, rambling and barley coherent speech (in English), and that more educated supporters had improved the English before committing it to ink. Wrote one critic; “He has been regarded as the most marked example of a man of feeble intellect gaining wealth purely by luck.” Then in 1795, when Timothy offered to construct at his own expense a public market house for Newburyport, these envious men and others who trusted them, voted to reject his offer, with thanks, of course. Stung by the insult Timothy decided to leave town.He sold his new house on State Street (now part of the public library) and moved to Chester, New Hampshire (that home now "The Dalton Club"). But he lived there for only two years. And when he returned to Newburyport in 1798 he was a changed man. Any hesitation for what others thought of him had evaporated. In fact he seemed determined to remind those who despised him, just why they hated him.He built himself a most unusual house on High Street. “He put minarets on the roof…(and)in front placed rows of columns fifteen feet high…each having on its top a statue of some distinguished man….and occupying the most prominent position were the statues of Washington, Adams and Jefferson, and to the other statues he gave the names of Bonaparte, Nelson, Franklin…often changing them according to his fancy. In a conspicuous place was a statue of him self, with the inscription, "I am the first in the East, the first in the West, and the greatest philosopher in the Western world." They were gaudily painted, and…attracted crowds, whose curiosity deeply gratified the owner, and he freely opened his grounds to them.”According to John James Currier in his “History of Newburyport”, Timothy “…would transact no business when intoxicated, and made his appointments for the forenoon, saying he was always drunk in the afternoon.” Timothy took to calling himself “Lord Timothy Dexter”, and had a coat of arms painted on the door of his carriage as if he were nobility. But those who missed the joke were unaware that his wife Elizabeth’s maiden name had been “Lord”. He claimed to have given Elizabeth $2,000 to leave him, and “hired” her back at the same sum two weeks later. He told other visitors that Elizabeth had died and that the "drunken, nagging woman" wandering about the property was her ghost. And then Timothy decided to write a book. He called it “A Pickle for the Knowing Ones or Plain Truth in a Homespun Dress”.
The first edition had 8,847 words, no punctuation and was filled with misspellings. That edition sold out. When the second edition was printed he added a page of random punctuation marks, explaining, “…I put in a nuf here and (the reader) may pepper and salt it as they please”.In the book Timothy claimed to have sold coals to Newcastle (at a profit), warming pans and mittens to the West Indies (at a profit), bibles to the East Indies and stray cats to Caribbean (both also at a profit). None of it was true of course, but anyone with a sense of humor got the joke. Many of his neighbors did not. That year, when a visitor finished a prayer for a meal, Timothy turned to his son and exclaimed, “That was a d----d good prayer, wasn’t it, Sam.”In 1805 Mr, James Akin did an engraving of Timothy as he was often seen about Newburyport, with hat and cane, and followed by his little dog. It is the only image we have of the man. Timothy Dexter died on October 26, 1806 at the age if sixty. He left an estate valued at about $36,000. (worth about half a million in 2007.) Elizabeth followed him in 1809, aged 72. Said Timothy’s biographer, Samuel Knapp, " Many who attempted to take advantage of him got sadly deceived. He had no small share of cunning, when all else seemed to have departed from him…In buying he gave the most foolish reasons to blind the seller, who thought that he was deceived, when deceiving.”The website devoted to honoring Timothy points to Ralph Waldo Emerson’s advice on living; “Be silly. Be honest. Be kind: for indeed, these were three simple dictates which guided Lord Timothy Dexter.”
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Sunday, June 15, 2008

BURNING OIL


I don’t like being gamed and I don’t like being lied to. And I don’t like being “served” by a “mainstream” media who seem obsessed with their own navels. George Bush is out to lunch, again and both of our Presidential candidates are in mumble mode, repeating platitudes (so much for Obama’s “new” politics.) All of which means that the best friend the American middle class has in the entire world is the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, Ali al-Nami, who said publicly that the current price of crude oil is “unjustified” and just that simple statement forced a drop of $1.88 in the price of a barrel of crude on the N.Y. Mercantile Exchange. It’s now at $134.86 a barrel. When a bureaucrat from an autocratic theocratic monarchy is the best friend the citizens of a democracy have, we are well on our way to hell.
Are we running out of oil? According to U.S. government sources, we have burned over 875 billion barrels of oil over the last 75 years. There are 42 gallons in every barrel of oil, so we burn about 9 billion gallons of oil every day in the United States. But there are 1,000 billion barrels of proven and probable reserves still in the ground. No, we are not running out of oil in the near future. It is clearly time to start conserving and moving to other energy sources, but despite what the mainstream media would have you believe, the experts can find no logical explanation for the current price run-up. Even after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York oil was selling for just $17.45 a barrel. Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research believes that “…at about $80 a barrel the market crossed into the irrational exuberance level…It’s hard to find a rational explanation for the gain of the last six months.” Unless of course, the explanation has nothing to do the true value of oil, but with market gaming. The price of oil has risen 697%, that is six hundred ninety-seven percent, since November 2001, and on June 6, 2008 it hit $139 a barrel. Why?
There is no mystery here. There is a long history of people “gaming” isolated unregulated or under regulated markets. In 1979-80 the Hunt brothers pushed the price of silver from $11 an ounce to $50 an ounce in 5 months by controlling just 100 ounces out of a world supply estimated at more than 400 million ounces. That bubble collapsed by April of 1980 but the same thing is happening now with essential commodities, including oil and food, because we are talking about a tiny market, relative to the global economy: the futures market. The commodity futures can be manipulated by buying on “margin”, which means that with access to a few million dollars, usually in unregulated “hedge funds,” speculators can leverage hundreds of billions of dollars in profit for themselves with the connivance of bureaucrats blinded by ideology.
You might call it the revenge of the unregulated economy, or maybe “Enron, risen from the grave”, because that is the most recent philosophical base of the current market mess. Wikipedia most succinctly describes the process in the California electricity market in 2000, in which Enron was a central player; “Deregulating the producers …did not encourage new producers to create more power and drive down prices. Instead,…The producers used moments of spike energy production to inflate the price of energy… Manipulation strategies were known to energy traders under names such as "Fat Boy", "Death Star”, "Forney Perpetual Loop", "Ricochet", "Ping Pong", "Black Widow", "Big Foot", "Red Congo", "Cong Catcher" and "Get Shorty"…. On December 15, 2000…California was paying a wholesale price. .of over $1400 per megawatt, compared to $45 per megawatt average one year earlier.” In 2002 S. David Freeman, who ran California’s Power Authority during the so called energy crises, could have been describing the current (2008) oil price spikes when he testified before a Senate Subcommittee; “…a market approach for electricity (or commodity trading) is inherently gameable….Never again can we allow private interest to create artificial or even real shortages and to be in control.”
"Never again" under Bush and the true believers in the nobility of market managers proved a horribly short time. Der Spiegel, the German news magazine, describes the current futures market this way, “…the transactions concluded in this sector no longer have anything to do with real goods…They trade in pieces of information that mean nothing until they are in possession of one of them….When a pipeline bursts in Canada, “the price immediately jumps by $4”, says Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst with Oppenheimer in New York with 20 years experience in the industry. Gheit, also an engineer, knows how pipelines are repaired. “This isn’t heart surgery. It’s a plumber’s job, child’s play, finished in three days,” he says. “The traders use every excuse in the book to drive up prices”.” Sound familiar?
Because they are risking so little (and in any case it is OPM, Other People’s Money) they take huge risks, driving prices in huge swings up and then down. And it isn’t just oil. Again, from Der Spiegal: “In Chicago, the home of the world’s largest commodities futures exchange, the volume of futures being traded is already 30 times as high as the annual grain production in the United States…”Real Trading”, says Hubert Gabrisch of the Institute for Economic Research…has “become the exception on the exchanges”. Prices are now determined by speculators, financial jugglers with no interest whatsoever in having any contact with or physically delivering the vast amounts of grain they own.”
Hedge fund manager, Micheal Masters, told congress last month that speculators had purchased 1.1 billion barrels of oil futures, 8 times the amount in the national strategic oil reserve. They certainly never expect to actually deliver that oil to a customer, or even get within smelling distance of it. And speculators have now bought enough corn futures to fuel the entire U.S. ethanol program for a year. The closest these traders ever get to corn is if it shows up on their dinner plate. Trading House Morgan Stanley now owns agricultural land in the Ukraine. A New York fund owns 2,700 acres of farmland in Britain. And the British Emergent Asset Management company is buying African farms south of the Sahara Desert. What the hell are these brokers going to do with that property? This is not trading commodity futures, it is fantasy trading like a fantasy baseball or a fantasy football league. And it desperately needs to be brought under control
How did we get in this mess? It was easy. Step one was the historically low interest rates, which meant that cash was plentiful and at the same time you couldn’t make much money lending money. That drove investors to look elsewhere for large profits, at places they had never bothered to look at before. Couple this with the “free market” fanatics, and the “deregulation” craze, and a “bubble” was inevitable. In fact, we have now suffered through a dozen bubbles, each one bigger than the last and all fueled by the deregulation craze. And investment guru George Soros believes we are approaching a “Super Bubble” that could pop and throw us into another worldwide “Great Depression”. And that is why the Saudi oil minister is our new best friend. A world wide depression might mean a revolution in his nation: and ours.
We need to return to a real market economy. We need to do that while we still have a choice, before a complete economic collapse forces us to do it.
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