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Wednesday, May 28, 2025

THE GREAT SILVER HUNT

  

I think billionaire Nelson Bunker Hunt (above) would prefer to be remembered as a man who did not smoke, drink or gamble, even though he was the son of a flagrant womanizer, who had openly produced two completely separate families, and a third in secret - fifteen children in total by three simultaneous wives, In response to his father's sins, Nelson was a major financial supporter of Fundamentalist Christian political groups.

Nelson was friends with and a financial supporter of white supremacists Senators Jesse Helms, of North Carolina and Strom Thurmond, of South Carolina. He was also a major financial supporter of the right wing John Birch Society.  And he was famous for searching his couch cushions looking to recover lost change, his own and visitors.

Said a family member; “Sometimes he’s brilliant. The rest of the time you wonder whether he’s really there with you or not.” Said a business partner; “He doesn’t just want some of it. He wants it all.”

Said his father, legendary oil man and bigamist Haroldson Lafayette Hunt Jr. (above); “I could find more oil with a road map, than Nelson could with a platoon of fancy geologists”. Said Nelson himself; “Worrying is for people with strong intellect or weak character.”

But maybe the key to his personality was that Nelson Baker Hunt, like Donald Trump, was born a second son. Nelson’s eldest brother - his father’s “run away favorite” - Hassie Hunt (above, left), was an oil wildcatter and “a millionaire in his own right by the age of 21.” And then this older, smarter brother developed schizophrenia and his desperate father decided to treat him with a lobotomy. Since that "Hail Mary Pass" of treatment failed, Hassie spent the rest of his life under 24 hour nursing care.

Thus Nelson (above) became the replacement son. But, again like Trump,  he was never his father’s favorite. And that may explain why one dark night in 1974 Nelson and a staff descended upon New York City in three charted 707 jets,. When the jets took off again, they flew 40 million ounces of silver to Nelson's leased vaults in Switzerland.

Now, silver is a commodity, like wheat or oil or steel. You can buy a commodity, and you can even sign a contract pledging to buy it at a set price some time in the future. These futures are a bet as to what the price of that commodity will be. The vast majority of futures traders never intend upon taking delivery of the actual commodity. They merely bet on the market, providing producers and buyers a hedge against price fluctuations of the actual commodity. People who buy gold on TV ought to remember that.

In most cases, these bets stabilize the market, which is good for everybody. And to encourage trading in futures, buyers have to put down only a small percentage of the total price they are betting on, called a “margin”. But Nelson was willing to suffer the expense of transportation, storage and insurance, by actually taking delivery on his silver, because he believed in a doomsday fundamentalist theology, that sooner or later the world’s financial markets were going to collapse. Paper money would become worthless. And if all that happened, a commodity like silver would still have intrinsic value.  Not like, food, you know. Just intrinsic, some how. 

In 1974 the world wide production of new silver was 245 million ounces, while annual consumption was 450 million ounces. The imbalance (67%) was made up through recovery of “scrap silver”, everything from recycling industrial applications to melting down family heirlooms.

But that imbalance also meant the control of a tiny percentage of the world’s silver could swing the price. This meant that every ounce of silver that Nelson bought and now stored in his Swiss vaults was another ounce removed from the market. And that drove the price of the remaining silver up. As the price went up, the silver in Nelson’s vaults increased in value.  Thus, on paper, he was getting richer by the day.

Nelson Bunker Hunt (above) cashed in on that increase by using it as collateral for loans, which he used to buy more silver and more silver futures. Which took even more silver off the market. Which made Hunt's silver even more valuable. He was gambling that the price would always go up, and he seemed to have enough control of the game, called leverage, to insure that it did.

The price rose from $6.22 per ounce in November of 1971 to $11.00 per ounce by the end of 1979. Nelson now controlled 1/3 of all the silver in the world not sitting in various government vaults, or being used to make electronics.

But Nelson’s manipulations had not gone unnoticed. Tiffany and Company made money selling silver art (above) to consumers. They took out a full page ad in the New York Times naming Nelson Hunt as the villain , and stating, “We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billions, of dollars worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver.”  What the retailer meant, of course, was Tiffany was having to pay more, which meant they could sell less.

By the end of December 1979 the price of silver had risen to over $50 an ounce. Five years after that first late night silver flight, Nelson (above, right) and his younger brother (above, left) had earned between two and four billion dollars in paper profit from the (by then) 100 million ounces of silver they had in their Swiss vaults, And they had future contracts to buy much more at even higher prices.

But while Nelson had been buying silver futures “long”, betting that the price would go up, he was also squeezing the manufacturers - like Tiffany's - who needed silver today. They would have to pass their price increases to the millions of customers who used their products...
....such the silver used in the millions of catalytic converters required to reduce air pollution by the new Environmental Protection Agency .  Compared to the universal health benefits of cleaner air, the only  beneficiaries of Nelson Baker Hunt's silver hoarding scheme were the Hunt family and friends. In addition, unchecked, Nelson's speculations held the potential to bring about the very economic doomsday which was part of the evangelical prophecy.

On 7 January, 1980, the five year old United States Commodity Trading Commission, which had oversight of all futures markets, issued “Silver Rule Seven" which increased the margin required for silver futures.  Just four days later the price of silver had fallen back to $25 an ounce.

As the value of Nelson’s collateral began to plummet, the brokerage houses and banks which had made him loans to buy silver futures, now issued a $100 million "margin call" on those loans. In effect, Nelson would either have to cough up that $100 million, or fulfill the contracts, and take delivery on and pay for $1.7 billion in additional silver he did not already own.

Early on the morning of Thursday 26 March, 1980, before the commodity markets opened, Nelson’s younger brother and partner, Herbert Hunt (above), placed a telephone call to the chairman of the Futures Commodity Trading Commission and asked him not to open the silver market. The reason given for that extraordinary request was that the Hunt brothers would not be meeting their margin calls that morning – “would not”, Hunt had said, not “could not.”

As John Bloom noted in an article he wrote for the magazine “Texas Monthly” “Here was one of the leading spokesman for unbridled free enterprise in America, asking a federal regulator to close a market. If the federal government would not do that, then he simply wouldn’t pay up.”

That day, the silver markets did open. And they immediately collapsed. The price of silver futures fell from $25 an ounce to $10.20 an ounce. The day passed into history as “Silver Thursday”.

As the Federal government attempted a postmortem, they discovered that Nelson Hunt had assets of $1.5 billion, and debts of $2.43 billion. In short he was bankrupt. In addition he owned 6.5% of one of the brokerage houses which had loaned him money on the Silver Futures, a fact never revealed to the Security Exchanges Commission, which was supposed to regulate those houses. That cross control had been illegal since the Great Depression, which it helped cause.

The feds also discovered that Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker (above) had met with Nelson several times in an attempt to find funding to save him from bankruptcy. all while allowing him to continue to unbalance the silver market.

As Time Magazine noted, Volcker’s “continual monitoring of the situation was interpreted by bankers to mean that the Federal Reserve…favored some kind of bailout to keep the Hunts from going under…(which) showed that when big speculators lose millions, “telephone calls come to Paul Volcker for a quick fix.” Those banks put together a one billion dollar line of credit to save, not the Hunt brothers, but the brokerage house he had defaulted. Yes, it has all happened before. Several times, in fact.

The aftermath to Bunker Hunt’s silver manipulation is also informative. The banks went after the Hunt’s fortune, seeking return of another billion dollars lost in their game. Like all good defendants, Nelson countersued, accusing the banks of lending him money which they knew he couldn’t possibly pay back. It was an absurd argument, but it allowed Hunt’s fifteen lawyers to negotiate a reduction of the repayment. Yes, the rich really do live in a different world than average people.

In 1998 a federal jury found Herbert Hunt (above, left), Lamar Hunt (above, center) and Nelson Baker Hunt (above, right) guilty of fraud and conspiracy to monopolize the world's silver market. Nelson was banned for life from ever trading in futures again. And finally Nelson Bunker Hunt was personally forced into Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Nelson was certainly not reduced to poverty. The extended family remained wealthy and politically well connected. A reporter for the Dallas Morning News found in March of 2009 the 83 year old was  living “in relative modesty in a North Dallas house with his wife of 57 years”. The key word there is "relative".  Nelson insisted he had no regrets.

In better times, Nelson Baker Hunt said, “People who know how much they're worth, aren't usually worth that much.” Stephen Susman, one of Nelson’s lawyers, said, “These people are gamblers. If you’re a gambler, you take your shot.” Except, of course, when these rich folks win their gambles, it's their money. When they lose, it's ours. And that has always been true.
                                                   - 30 -

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

CLEVER HANS

 

"I can always tell which is the front end of a horse, but beyond that, my art is not above the ordinary."
Mark Twain.
I have no doubt Hans was clever. But what was he clever about?  What are the odds the only genius mind-reading horse would be bought by a retired gym teacher who was just happened to be anxious to prove that horses could memorize the multiplication tables? Perhaps I should rein myself in here, and start at the beginning.
"Horses do think. Not very deeply, perhaps, but enough to get you into a lot of trouble."
Patricia Jacobson and Marcia Hayes - "A Horse Around the House"
Right out of the gate, Hans just looked smart (above). He was handsome, sleek, athletic and big, almost a thousand pounds and five and a half feet high at the shoulders. His breed had been founded by Count Orlov who crossed Russian mares with Arabian stallions, to produce spirited trotters. And then Count Rostophin threw in three oriental stallions to breed gentle, empathetic riding horses. So popular was the breed that by 1866 nearly half of all horses on Russian stud farms were Orlovs. And by the end of the 19th century, they were even being sold in Europe.
"Small children are convinced that ponies deserve to see the inside of the house."
Maya Patel
The popularity of the Orlov is explained by the web site, InfoHorse.com (http://www.infohorse.com/ShowAd.asp?id=3693) ; “Possessed of amazing intelligence, they learn quickly and remember easily with few repetitions. There is often an uncanny understanding of what is wanted and needed of them....They can become extremely sensitive to the moods and emotions of their riders/owners, even reflecting them in self-carriage. Under saddle this makes for a partner of such willingness and awareness that traditional (dressage) exercises become poetry.”
"Horses are uncomfortable in the middle and dangerous at both ends."
Ian Fleming - Sunday Times of London, October 9, 1966
Which brings us to Wilhelm von Osten (above), a retired, grouchy, grumpy Berlin prep school mathematics teacher who believed that animal intelligence was sorely underrated. Beginning in the 1880's he attempted to teach simple math to a cat. The feline did not care scratch for his efforts, so von Osten switched his subject to a bear. The Ursula proved a bear market for von Osten's educational techniques. So in 1888 he bought a pony, whom he named Hans. Von Osten was giddy when, after a few weeks effort, he wrote the number three on a blackboard, Hans tapped his right hoof three times. It seemed clear, to William at least, that he had harnessed the genius in the young stallion.
"It's always been and always will be the same in the world: The horse does the work and the coachman is tipped"
Old proverb
Von Osten now had the bit between his teeth. He asked Hans for the sum of three plus two, and the black beauty tapped his hoof five times. Eventually Hans was even figuring square roots and working with fractions. Hans even read a calendar, answering  the question “, "If the eighth day of the month comes on a Tuesday, what is the date of the following Friday?” - something I would have trouble with. But there was more. Asked to identify a member of the crowd,  Hans was able to tap out a name, using a complicated code chart, even though no one had told the horse the man's name.   
But after years of giving public demonstrations before enthusiastic crowds, von Osten grew frustrated by official indifference.  So, in the summer of 1902, he advertised for sale his “beautiful, gentle 7 year old stallion”, in a military newspaper.  In fact Hans was not seven, and he was not really for sale, but the ad did mention, “He distinguishes ten colors, reads, knows the four arithmetic operations, etc.” That elicited the sought after response from cavalry officers, who stampeded to von Osten's house. They came prepared to mock but left impressed. Because of this growing support by such a respected segment of Emperial German society, within two years even the Minister for Education was singing Han's (and of course, von Osten's) praises.
“You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him participate in synchronized diving.”
Cuthbert Soup - “Another Whole 'Nother Story”
The mockery poured upon the Minister for those statements finally achieved Von Osten's goal. A panel of 13 “experts” was herded together; a veterinarian, a circus manager, a Cavalry officer, the Director of the Berlin Zoo, some school teachers and the psychologist Carl Stumpf,  The panel put Hans through his paces, and when faced with Han's 89.9% accuracy,  came to the unanimous conclusion there were no tricks involved.  That declaration even made the New York Times chuckle (“Berlin’s Wonderful Horse. He Can Do Almost Everything but Talk.”)  The German government was now facing a night-mare of public humiliation.  So before declaring himself mentally un-stable, Professor Stumpf decided to go one step further.  He asked his assistant, Oskar Pfungst, to put Hans through his paces, again.
I'd rather have a goddamn horse. A horse is at least human, for God's sake.
J.D. Salinger - “The Catcher in the Rye”
Pfungst designed experiments for Dr. Stumpf, and he now laid down four restrictions to begin a series of new tests for Hans,  to be conducted in the courtyard of the Psychological Institute of the University of Berlin.  First Pfungst cut von Osten right out the herd.  Then he put blinders on Hans, so he could only see the human asking the question.  And then he varied whether the questioner knew the answer or not.  The key turned out to this last bit. When the human was ignorant of the correct answer,  Han's accuracy dropped to just 6%.  So Hans was only as smart as the human asking the questions.  That lead to testing the questioner.  
By closely watching the humans and not the horse,  Pfungst found they were subtly and unconsciously tensing their muscles as Han's approached the correct answer, and showed a similar relaxation immediately afterward.  Pfungst's theory was that Hans was watching for the same muscle clues he expected when a human was riding on his back. In his December 1904 report – "Clever Hans (the horse of Mr. von Osten) A Contribution To Experimental Animal And Human Psychology" - Plungst revealed, that he could now “call forth at will all the various reactions of the horse by making the proper kind of voluntary movements, without asking the relevant question.” .
"Horse sense is the thing a horse has, which keeps it from betting on people."
W.C. Fields
But for me, von Osten's mane arguments were finally reduced to horse d'oeuvres when Pfungst used von Osten's techniques to train his own dog, (above, left center),  Nora, to duplicate all of Hans' feats...or hoofs.  Of course, having hitched his reputation to his halter-ego, Von Osten bridled at the suggestion he did not own a genius horse – Hans, that is.  So he bolted for the exit - von Osten did, that is.  He told a newspaper “one can hardly see in these experiments more than a kind of scholarly jest....”  He retreated to his families' estate in Prussia.  And there the bitter old man died, on 3 July, 1909.  He was buried at the Church of Zion (Zionskirchhof) back in Berlin
"If the world was truly a rational place, men would ride sidesaddle."
Rita Mae Brown
Hans, still as clever as ever, was adopted by Karl Krall, a wealthy jeweler in the west German town of Elberfeld. Krall was also determined to prove Hans a genius, and the stallion continued to spend hours each day, now with two stall mates,  standing through interminable instruction and testing sessions. The horse genius was last heard of in 1916 when he was drafted, and probably died pulling wagons in World War One. 
Meanwhile, the "Clever Hans (in German “Kluge Hans”) Effect", still plagues researchers by producing false positive results by search, drug and bomb sniffing dogs, dolphins and primates used in language research and even human sufferers of autism. And I suspect it also occurs in contestants on American Idol.
"There are only two emotions that belong in the saddle; one is a sense of humor and the other is patience."
John Lyons
- 30 -

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